Sat Feb 8 8:07pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer
First and foremost, I just wanted to say that it was an honor and a privilege to spend the 2024 NFL season with all of you here at RT Sports. I know I’ve been around for a while and many of you knew who I was prior to this season, but this season was definitely a special one as I connected with a number of new friends here and this season has been a blast. You’ll still find me lurking around for the upcoming MLB season, but please stay in touch via my socials:
OK, now let’s get to why we’re really here! It’s time to start building some DFS Pickem parlays for the Super Bowl! It doesn’t matter if you’re rooting for the Kansas City Chiefs or the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s all about winning some money!
If you’ve been tailing this series, you’ll remember we did some great work for the Conference Championships. We nailed our pick for Jalen Hurts, Zach Ertz and Xavier Worthy with ease. We did get tripped up on Isiah Pacheco, but lesson learned there as it was painfully obvious that the lead job in that backfield resides with Kareem Hunt. Does that continue here in the Super Bowl? Probably, but I might just avoid that backfield altogether for the big game.
One quick note before we get to my picks – RT Sports if gifting you a Super Bowl Promotional Pick, so don’t miss out. Patrick Mahomes at 0.5 total yards? Yes, please. And thank you. They have a $10 limit on that entry, but they don’t limit how many other picks you can attach in a parlay, so let’s get it!
Here’s what I’m playing for Super Bowl LIX:
Patrick Mahomes MORE than 23.5 completions
He hasn’t exceeded 20 completions through two games in the playoffs, but he had at least 24 in five of his final six regular season games and did so in 10 games this season. Given the strength of the Eagles run defense, the mediocrity we’ve seen from the Chiefs ground game in recent weeks and the fact that Andy Reid wants the ball in his quarterback’s hands as often as possible, I see him clearing this mark once again.
Jalen Hurts MORE than 211.5 passing yards
The Chiefs typically use two-high safeties in coverage, but given the need to contain Saquon Barkley, they will likely use more single-high safety looks which will put A.J. Brown in more one-on-one situations with Trent McDuffie and leave some of the middle of the field open for DeVonta Smith working out of the slot in three-receiver sets. Hurts crushed this number in the Conference Championships as we knew he would and I expect him to do the same as the Chiefs focus their attention on Barkley.
Dallas Goedert MORE than 4.5 receptions (0.96x)
The multiplier is a little lower here due to the high probability of this pick hitting. The Chiefs were one of the worst teams against the tight end all year and gave up an average of eight targets, six catches and 68.5 receiving yards per game to the position. Since returning from injury in Week 18, Goedert has averaged six targets per game and while he only had four catches in each of his first three games back, he went over this number last week in the Conference Championship. The Chiefs defense tends to funnel targets to the middle of the field and Goedert will be the guy Hurts looks for when he needs to move the chains.
Travis Kelce MORE than 60.5 receiving yards
Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio typically relies on Cover-4 and Cover-6 in the secondary. In fact, he ran those two coverage packages 37 percent of the time this season (highest in the NFL) and then ran them 42.3 percent of the time here in the playoffs. What that does is cut off the perimeter as well as take away the deeper shots, so things are funneled to the middle of the field which is Kelce’s wheelhouse. While the Eagles were one of the best teams against the tight end this season, their coverage against the position has dramatically faltered since the loss of linebacker Nakobe Dean. Neither Zach Baun nor Cooper DeJean are going to be able to cover Kelce throughout this game, so expect Mahomes to lean on his big target once again.
The Long Boi Parlay: