Hard to bet against Mahomes

It is hard to believe but here we are in the last week of the season. Time sure does fly, right? Super Bowl Sunday is one of the greatest days of the year but also a sad one, seeing the football season come to an end for another year. The good news is it seems the offseason is shorter and shorter every year, so don’t get too down after the game this weekend. Football will be back before you know it. Enjoy the game, though.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

I think the Super Bowl is going to be a great one. These teams are pretty evenly matched in my view but I just think the Chiefs get it done once again. They just find ways to win and Patrick Mahomes is that “X” factor in my view. Mahomes makes big play after big play in the playoffs and I expect more of the same this weekend. I can see Mahomes running more than normal - much like he has all these playoffs. He makes the big play for his team when needed. I think the Chiefs do enough to win the game, coming out on top 28-24.

I can see why the Rams are planning to trade Cooper Kupp. He is not getting any younger and hasn’t produced quite the same in recent years. Injuries are always a concern for Kupp. I still think he has a few good years left, though, and could be a big fantasy factor once again, depending on his landing spot. I would love to see him land in Buffalo, making him Josh Allen’s top target in the passing game. That seems like a great fit for Kupp. We’ll see.

The draft should be interesting this year. There isn’t quite the quarterback class of last year, but plenty of needy teams for a franchise quarterback. This could drive up the price of some players that shouldn’t be drafted so high. Now the running back class is stacked in my view with a lot of top options. You could see running backs taken sooner than in recent seasons and make an immediate impact in fantasy circles. The receiver class is a little top heavy in my view and drops off in a hurry from the top options. Last season was stacked with a host of elite options but that isn’t nearly the case this year. It should be another fun draft. I know I’m looking forward to seeing it all shake out.

It would be nice if the NFL was more like the NBA, seeing some real movement in the trade market. This just doesn’t happen in the NFL. It sure is exciting when elite players are dealt, though. I would love it if the NFL trade deadline had more movement. It just doesn’t happen and I don’t see that changing. I think the best chance of blockbuster trades come around the NFL draft. Hopefully, that is the case this year.

One of the most interesting players in free agency this year is Sam Darnold. I’m really anxious to see where he lands and the deal he gets. He had a breakout season but fizzled down the stretch, leading to more question marks about him as a top NFL starter. If he moves to a team with fewer weapons than the Vikings, can he still be that elite starter? That is the big question. It will be fascinating to see what teams view him as this offseason.

Lastly, have a great Super Bowl Sunday. This is the last Lineup Prep until before Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season. It has been a great year and I appreciate everyone reading during the season. We have the best users on RTSports and I’m blessed to be part of this community.

HOT PLAYS

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. Mahomes might have been a little quiet during the regular season for his standards but is showing up in the playoffs once again. He had his highest scoring fantasy game of the season against the Bills, scoring 33.55 fantasy points. Mahomes had three total touchdowns and threw for 245 yards. He just comes up big in the big game, so look for more of the same this week for Mahomes.

DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles. Smith has been pretty quiet in the playoffs, having four receptions for 66 yards in two games on eight targets. He has been the third option most weeks in the passing game of late. That could change this week, though, playing a Chiefs team he has historically produced some huge games. For his career, Smith has at least 99 yards all three of his games against the Chiefs. He has two 100-yard games of those three. Don’t get too worried about his down production of late. Smith can get it going this week.

COLD PLAYS

Kareem Hunt, RB, Chiefs. Hunt seems to have moved ahead of Isiah Pacheco for now, playing 58 percent of the snaps last week compared to 29 percent for Pacheco in their last game. He is the fantasy back to use in the Kansas City offense for now. But even with that said, he isn't a top fantasy play. His touchdowns are the only thing driving up his fantasy value. If you take away his scores each of the last two games, his numbers are very mediocre. He has 25 carries for 110 yards and just two catchers for eight yards. We aren’t sure he finds the end zone this week against the Eagles, a team that allowed the second fewest fantasy points to running backs. This makes Hunt an iffy fantasy play.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Chiefs. Hopkins has just a catch for 11 yards on three targets in the Chiefs two playoff games. He is a hard player to trust right now. Hopkins has not topped 50 yards in a game since Week 13. It could be more of the same this week for Hopkins. He gets an Eagles team that allowed the eighth fewest fantasy points to receivers and was first overall against the pass during the regular season.

SLEEPERS

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Chiefs. There always seems to be a receiver that surprises in the Super Bowl. We think it might be Smith-Schuster this year. He played 58 percent of the snaps his last game, which was the third most for any receiver. He was on the field a lot and had two catches for 60 yards. If he can get that much playing time again this week, look for him to make a big play or two for the Chiefs.

Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles. Goedert has at least four receptions four straight games. He had seven receptions for 85 yards on eight targets and two rushes for 13 yards his last game against the Commanders. Goedert is getting his weekly chances since returning from injury in Week 18. We look for more of the same this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends this season.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Eagles/Chiefs.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.