Week 10 TNF: Raiders-Broncos Preview, Props, Prediction

Thu Nov 6 2:35pm ET
Field Level Media

The Denver Broncos can become the first NFL team to reach the eight-win mark when they play host to the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday night to open Week 10.

The Broncos have been kings of late comebacks while surprisingly being tied for the best record in the NFL. Denver (7-2) seeks its seventh straight victory when it faces its longtime AFC West rivals.

Las Vegas (2-6) has dropped six of its past seven games, including a 30-29 home overtime loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday.

ODDS AND TRENDS

The Broncos are consensus 9.0-point favorites. That includes at BetRivers, where they have been backed by 64% of the spread-line money. Denver has covered the spread in each of its past four games as the favorite against AFC West rivals.

Denver's moneyline sat at -500 on Thursday afternoon but that hadn't dissuaded the public, which has backed the Broncos with 90% of the total ML bets and 95% of the money.

The total points line of 43.0 has seen the Over supported by 54% of the money. Seven of the Raiders' past eight road games against AFC West teams have gone Under the total points line.

PROP PICKS

--Broncos QB Bo Nix 200+ Passing Yards (-207 at DraftKings): This has been the most popular player prop at the book, with Nix throwing for at least 242 yards in four of his past six games. While better potential payouts are available on 210+ (-155), 220+ (-118), 230+ (+110) and 240+ (+145), there is cause to be cautious considering the likelihood of Denver leaning heavier on the ground when the game gets comfortably in hand.

--Broncos RB RJ Harvey Anytime TD (+210 at BetRivers): The rookie has had a difficult time earning consistent snaps in the backfield with veteran J.K. Dobbins ahead of him, but Harvey has found the end zone four times over the past two weeks. Two of those were as a receiver, with Nix targeting Harvey five times last week for 51 yards and a score.

INSIDE EDGE

Harvey's role in the passing game figures to only increase as the season progresses. According to Inside Edge's Remarkable engine, Dobbins has averaged only 8.3 receiving yards per game since the start of the 2024 season, which is the lowest among qualified running backs.

SERIES HISTORY

Denver swept the Raiders last season after losing the previous eight matchups. The Broncos also enter with a nine-game home winning streak.

NIX-ING ANY CRITICS

Nix (1,976 yards, 17 touchdowns) is developing a big reputation for coming through in the clutch. That includes four fourth-quarter comebacks during Denver's current win streak.

"Bo's just being Bo," said Denver receiver Courtland Sutton. "Week in and week out, he shows up. ... He finds a way. He's a gamer. The dude shows up. We know that when we have him back there, we have a chance to win the game. I think that's the most fun thing and confident thing to be able to have is to know the guy back there is going to give us a chance to win the game."

RAIDERS' NEW LOOK

Second-year tight end Brock Bowers is coming off a monstrous game with 12 catches for 127 yards and three touchdowns. He is the first Raiders' tight end with three scoring catches in a game since franchise legend Todd Christensen in 1986.

The Raiders traded veteran receiver Jakobi Meyers to the Jaguars on Tuesday for Jacksonville's fourth- and sixth-round picks next year. That came a week after signing veteran Tyler Lockett, who played for coach Pete Carroll and with quarterback Geno Smith in Seattle.

INJURY REPORT

Las Vegas defensive tackle Adam Butler (back) and safeties Lonnie Johnson (fibula) and Isaiah Pola-Mao (hip) are questionable for Thursday's game. Backup quarterback Aidan O'Connell (right wrist) was ruled out.

Star cornerback Patrick Surtain II (pectoral) sat out both practices this week and will miss his second straight game. Tight end Nate Adkins (knee) and receiver Marvin Mims Jr. (concussion) also were ruled out. Safety P.J. Locke (neck) is questionable.

THEY SAID IT

--"We've heard a lot about the win streak, but we're not even really thinking about that because we have so many things that we want to correct. We feel like we haven't even played a complete game offensively. We're all in a growth mindset and we're worried about the things we can fix." --Nix on the Broncos' streak.

--"It has to be multiple guys. Jakobi was such an impact player for us. I wish him the best. He was a great practice player, and I enjoyed coaching him. He was a heck of a kid, but we got some other receivers who are going to have to pick it up." --Raiders offensive coordinator Chip Kelly on replacing Meyers, who had 33 receptions for 352 yards with no touchdowns in seven games.

PREDICTION

In addition to these teams going in distinctly opposite directions over the past month-plus, the data points almost all support an easy Denver victory Thursday night.

Consider that according to the Remarkable engine, the Raiders have been successful on only 37.3% of their rushing attempts this season (fourth-worst in the NFL) while the Broncos have allowed a success rate of just 36.6% of rush attempts (second best).

If Las Vegas can't run the ball effectively it figures to be a tough night on the road. The Raiders have run only 42.5% of their offensive plays on the opponent's side of the ball (third worst), while the Broncos are second best in the league in allowing only 39.2% of plays to be run in their territory.

--Broncos 31, Raiders 20

Week 10 TNF: Raiders-Broncos Preview, Props, Prediction

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